Trump’s Iran Strategy: Control First, Then Build an Institution-Based Middle East

 A Strategic Analysis of the Trump Doctrine on Iran and the Middle East

Introduction: The Precarious Future of Iran

This article provides an overview of a talk given by Mohsin Modir Shanechi in a Clubhouse room on October 25th, 2025. In his analysis, Shanechi presents a stark warning about the future of Iran, arguing that a United States-instigated regime collapse could precipitate a crisis more chaotic and devastating than those seen in Syria or Venezuela.

His comparative risk assessment highlights the unique vulnerability of the Iranian state. Both Syria and Venezuela, despite their profound crises, possessed recognised opposition structures that could prevent a total power vacuum. Venezuela has a coherent and internationally recognised opposition leader in Maria Corina Machado—a Nobel Peace Prize laureate who provides a viable alternative to the Maduro regime and is already in dialogue with American officials. Syria, likewise, has an opposition that, while fragmented, has garnered international and regional support, providing a framework for a post-regime future.

World Energy Outlook 2024, More renewable and less fossil fuels in vision

Curtesy of IEA

The World Energy Outlook 2024 (WEO-2024), published by IEA, confirms that global clean energy momentum remains strong enough to bring about a peak in demand for oil, natural gas, and coal globally before 2030 in all major scenarios. While low-emissions sources, primarily renewables, are set to generate more than half of the world's electricity before 2030, the report heavily emphasises that geopolitical risks remain highly elevated, particularly stemming from escalating conflicts in the Middle East.

Focus on the Middle East (2030 Outlook)

The Middle East is scrutinised as its energy architecture remains dominated by fossil fuels, accounting for roughly 98% of its energy demand in 2023. This high dependence is shifting slowly: in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the region's energy demand is expected to rise by nearly 25% by 2035.

The Crescent Conundrum: How Internal Politics Scuttled a Strategic Gas Deal and Cost Iran Billions

1.0 Introduction: The Davari Revelations

On October 12, 2025, in an online TV session mysteriously cut off from its planned live broadcast,
Abdolreza Davari, a former media aide to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, methodically dismantled two decades of state-sponsored narrative surrounding the Crescent Gas contract. For years, the official story of the deal with the UAE-based Crescent Petroleum was a simple tale of rampant corruption and the treasonous "cheap selling" of national resources. A few hours later, Davari attended a Clubhouse room where several audience members were eagerly waiting for him to attend and brief them on the event. Davari’s testimony, however, shatters that narrative, exposing a starkly different reality: a strategically vital agreement deliberately sabotaged by internal political factions for domestic power, at a staggering cost to Iran's national security and treasury. This analysis will dissect Davari's explosive claims to uncover the intricate web of political manoeuvring, strategic miscalculations, and security implications behind one of Iran's most damaging energy disputes.

These revelations force a re-examination of the contract's origins and the true nature of the opposition that ultimately led to its demise.