Will the US attack Iran?
By Bernardo V. Lopez, 20 April 2006 (source: Business World)
The US is currently on a media blitzkrieg about its threat to attack Iran on the nuclear issue. But such an attack is highly improbable. First, any US military option has grave consequences on all nations, and the US knows it. It will be alone in such brinkmanship. Second, nobody in his right mind announces a preemptive strike. American saber-rattling via global media, including being "open" to the nuclear option, is simply a bluff to force Iran to accede to diplomatic pressures. There are two options, economic sanction or a military initiative. Economic sanction via the UN is out of the question because Russia and China will surely veto it. A US unilateral sanction, consisting of no trade, no visas and freezing assets will not work. Iran has its big trading partners - Russia and China - and anyone else in the world market in desperate need of its oil, including Japan. Iranian assets abroad - about $110 billion - are beyond the reach of US banking systems. The Iranians have long moved their assets. No-visa is inconsequential.
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