Intro:
Shanechi is presenting an analysis that examines the profound (and aggressively claims) institutional decay of the Iranian state, characterising it as a "Frankenstein" entity that maintains the hollow shell of a modern bureaucracy while operating like a predatory criminal network. He argues that the ruling elite have transitioned into a "parasitic relationship" with the nation, actively consuming the country’s resources and environmental health to ensure their own short-term survival.
To maintain control, the regime has implemented a "mosaic structure" of decentralised security, a strategy that prevents total collapse during domestic uprisings but leaves the government dangerously vulnerable to foreign infiltration. Ultimately, the source posits that systemic collapse is not a distant threat but a lived reality, evidenced by the disappearance of public wealth and the erosion of a dignified life for the exhausted citizenry.
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The Frankenstein State: Iran’s Evolution Toward Systemic Collapse
The Fragile Mosaic: Decoding Iran’s "Frankenstein" State and the Path to 2026
In a profoundly provocative session on an online platform on 19th December 2025, Mohsen Shanechi offered a stark diagnosis of Iran’s current malaise and a sobering forecast for its trajectory into 2026. Shanechi’s analysis is unapologetically grim, deploying a bold lexicon—ranging from "parasitic" relationships to "Frankenstein" institutions—that is rarely found in the polite confines of traditional political discourse. Yet, beneath the jarring rhetoric lies a series of essential insights into a state he describes as already living through its own collapse. For the sake of the record, I have distilled his primary arguments into the following summary, supplemented by broader context and direct quotes to illuminate the shifting tectonic plates of the Iranian state.
1. The Parasitic Shift: From Coexistence to Consumption
One of the most jarring takeaways from Shanechi’s talk is the idea that the ruling minority has transitioned from a symbiotic partner to a "parasite" [3]. In a functioning state, there is a level of coexistence where the government benefits from a prosperous population; however, Shanechi argues that the current system has decoupled its survival from the survival of Iran itself.
This is a chilling observation. It suggests the state is no longer invested in the nation’s longevity but is willing to sacrifice resources, environment, and even territorial integrity to keep the ruling group afloat. The nation is no longer a project to be built, but a "capacity" to be consumed.
"Iran becomes the host that has been in the service of that group. That group that has been a parasite... and that group now... considers Iran and the Iranian as an entity and a capacity that it can consume for its own survival."
2. The "Mosaic" Defence: Resilience via Fragmentation
To prevent a total collapse during uprisings, the Iranian security apparatus—specifically the IRGC—has adopted what Shanechi calls a "mosaic structure". After the 2009 protests, the system moved away from centralised management, breaking power into independent provincial "tiles" with their own budgets and command.
While this creates resilience—ensuring that if one province falls, others remain intact—it has a counter-intuitive flaw: it makes the state incredibly porous. Without a single "head," the system is easily infiltrated by foreign intelligence. Shanechi suggests that while the "mosaic" protects against the Iranian people, it has left the door wide open for external actors like Israel or Russia to influence specific "tiles" of the power structure.
3. The "Frankenstein" Institution
Shanechi describes the modern Iranian state as a "hybrid Frankenstein". The government maintains the "format" of Western bureaucracy—banks, ministries, and planning organisations—originally established during the Pahlavi era. However, these forms have been hollowed out and filled with a predatory "function": the survival of a mafia-like minority.
This explains why these institutions are often technically incompetent—failing to manage health crises or prevent assassinations—yet are "highly evolved" at managing terror and suppressing dissent. They look like modern state bodies but operate with the logic of a criminal network.
4. The Case of the Missing $8 Billion
The sheer scale of institutional decay is best illustrated by the reported "missing" $8 billion in currency that vanished within just six months [he refers to a report that actually claims $15 billion is missing]. Shanechi explains this isn't just theft; it’s the result of a non-transparent network of "trustees" and shell companies designed to bypass sanctions.
This point is vital because it shows a state that has lost control of its own "mafia" nodes. When billions disappear while the average citizen’s "food basket" shrinks, the state has ceased to function as a governing body and has become a clearinghouse for "rents" and corruption.
5. Redefining Collapse as a Lived Reality
Perhaps the most impactful insight is that "collapse" is not a future event but a process already being lived [2, 19]. Shanechi measures this through the erosion of a "dignified life": falling school grades, dried-up lakes, and polluted tap water.
He argues that the "urban class" is now too physically and economically exhausted to protest. When people must work three shifts just to eat, they aren't asking "where is my vote?"; they are simply trying to survive a state of collapse that has already arrived.
"We are living the collapse. Collapse is the comparison of Iran in 1977... with 2025... and seeing who has progressed. Our dream is to return to 1977."
Final Thought for 2026
As we look toward Iran in 2026, the picture Shanechi paints quite aggressively is one of a "parasite" that may be reaching the limits of its "host". With resources dwindling and internal "tiles" beginning to clash over the remaining wealth, the system faces a critical breaking point. He finally raised a big question that must be pondered: if the state has successfully insulated itself from its own people, can it survive the eventual death of the nation it has consumed?
Find the original Shanechi talk in Persian HERE
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Some notes on Shanechi vs. the referenced scholars
While Shanechi draws heavily on the work of Homa Katouzian and Ervand Abrahamian, there are fascinating nuances in how he applies their academic theories to today’s crisis.
Homa Katouzian’s "Mosaic" vs. Security Doctrine
Shanechi credits Katouzian with the "classic macro-theory" of Iran’s mosaic nature. However, Katouzian himself does not use the specific phrase "mosaic structure of security forces". Katouzian’s actual work, such as The Dialectic of State and Society, focuses on "arbitrary rule" and a "short-term society". While Katouzian’s theory explains why power is fragmented and lacks continuity, the "mosaic defence" is actually a specific IRGC military doctrine. Shanechi essentially takes Katouzian’s historical lens of fragmentation and applies it to the IRGC’s modern decentralisation.
Ervand Abrahamian and Institutional Fragility
Shanechi references Abrahamian to support the idea that Iranian institutions are "mafia-like" and lack a proper function. In Iran Between Two Revolutions, Abrahamian does argue that Iranian state structures are weakly rooted and institutionally fragile. However, Abrahamian’s focus is not on security "tiles," but on the disconnect between the state and society. He argues that political organisations in Iran never developed deep societal roots, leaving the state dependent on coercion rather than legitimacy. Shanechi builds on this by suggesting that this lack of social "rooting" has allowed the state to evolve into its current "Frankenstein" form.
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