According to a new Study by Johns Hopkins University in Maryland, Iran could run out of oil to export in eight years without significant investment in infrastructure.
The report, published by the US National Academy of Sciences, suggests that Iran's nuclear programme could be a "genuine" opportunity for investors as oil production has failed to bridge oil field losses and domestic demand growth.
Roger Stern of Johns Hopkins University in Maryland said: "I'm not saying that Iran will have no oil in eight years. I'm saying that they will be using all of it for themselves."
The data published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences said Tehran could become "politically vulnerable" from the decline in exports as these account for about 70 per cent of government revenue.
The U.S. case against Iran is based on Iran's deceptions regarding nuclear weapons development. This case is buttressed by assertions that a state so petroleum-rich cannot need nuclear power to preserve exports, as Iran claims. The U.S. infers, therefore, that Iran's entire nuclear technology program must pertain to weapons development.
However, some industry analysts project an Irani oil export decline [e.g., Clark JR (2005) Oil Gas J 103(18):34-39]. If such a decline is occurring, Iran's claim to need nuclear power could be genuine. Because Iran's government relies on monopoly proceeds from oil exports for most revenue, it could become politically vulnerable if exports decline.
In the study the researchers survey the political economy of Irani petroleum for evidence of this decline. They define Iran's export decline rate (edr) as its summed rates of depletion and domestic demand growth, which they find equals 10-12%.
To read the full report in PDF go @ PNAS
